Will deglobalisation fuel inflation?

Published by
The Bangkok Post

Inflation seems to be on everyone’s mind nowadays. The debate usually centres on whether America’s massive monetary and fiscal stimulus will de-anchor inflation expectations and cause prices to spin out of control. But there is another trend that could also generate inflationary pressure: deglobalisation. Deglobalisation has been occurring since the 2008 global financial crisis. But the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the trend significantly. Using data from the financial crisis, Kemal Kilic and I predict that the Covid-19 shock is likely to lead to a 35% decline in cross-border value cha…

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