Tesla Should Have Early Access Release of Feature Complete Full Self-Driving by the End of 2019

Tesla Should Have Early Access Release of Feature Complete Full Self-Driving by the End of 2019

Brian Wang |
October 23, 2019 |

At about 1 hour and 6 minutes (about 5 minutes into the Webcast) of this video of the Tesla Q3 Earnings call, Elon Musk said that Tesla should have early access for a feature-complete full self-driving system by the end of the year. This will be a tight delivery of a feature-complete full self-driving system by the end of the year.

Elon’s Self Driving Major Levels

Self Driving Level 1. Feature complete means supervised driving at all speeds but not necessarily all corner cases. Human intervention would not be needed in most cases. It will need supervision and some intervention in some cases.

Self Driving Level 2. Tesla believes the cars will be safe enough without supervision

Self Driving Level 3. Regulators believes it will be safe to drive without supervision

Tesla will have version 3 of the solar power roof. This will be officially launched tomorrow. Elon Musk this roof will be ready for the big time.

At about 1: 20 (19 minutes into the webcast), the video has questions and answers.

Elon believes Tesla’s energy (solar plus battery) business will be as big or bigger than Tesla’s automotive business.

Tesla Energy was stripped of technical resources due to the problems with the Tesla Model 3 ramp. These issues are overcome and resources are going to Tesla Solar and Storage. This will have “really crazy growth” for a long time.

Elon drove the Model Y release candidate. In Elon’s opinion the Model Y will outsell Model 3, Model X and Model S combined. Launching Model Y will not impact the production of Model 3. Model Y will have higher margin than Model 3.

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Solar helps increase the value of a home by about 4% according to Zillow.

Solar and Powerwall will be especially valuable in California where there will be long term power problems.

Tesla has a generic template for getting solar roofs approved. This is an innovation in the bureaucracy space. Tesla’s cost of acquisition are only 25% of other solar companies because they only have online ordering and no advertising.

Tesla will continue to sell self-driving as a package with their cars. The current focus for their self-driving work is on the handling of traffic lights and small windy roads.

The Robotaxi capability should be very reliable by the end of next year. It will be feature complete this year.

Changing from non-robotaxi to robotaxi will be the biggest step-change increase in asset value in history for a product.

Full-self driving (FSD)price should increase slowly over time as its capabilities improve.

Tesla gross margin is higher because there is about $500 million of unrecognized FSD revenue.

Deepscale was a tiny AI company with 12 people. The goal is to slightly increase the speed of FSD development.

Tesla should hit volume production in the China factory in a few months.

The second building at the Shanghai factory is for battery and module production.

The China factory will be expanded to handle Model Y production.

A Feature complete self-driving Tesla car will be able to drive from your home to work mostly likely without intervention. It will still be supervised.

There will be ramping inefficiencies during Q4 for the China factory production ramp.

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Elon believes the Tesla Pickup truck will be their best product ever. Details of the Tesla pickup truck will be available when there is an eventual product launch.

Elon wants to target 20 million vehicles per year to replace 1% of the global fleet each year.

SOURCES- Tesla Investor Call, Elon Musk, Cleantechnica

Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

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