Joe Biden would beat Trump by 12% and has double-digit lead in primary, Fox News poll finds

William Cummings


Published 2: 40 PM EST Nov 3, 2019

Former Vice President Joe Biden is still the Democrat who is most likely to defeat President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup, according to a new poll from Fox News. 

Fifty-one percent of registered voters said they would vote for Biden in that scenario and 39% said they would vote for Trump. Biden’s lead remained strong among registered independents, 33-23%, but 20% of them preferred “other” to him or Trump and 16% said they didn’t know who they would pick.

Trump trailed in almost every demographic except among white people, 46% of whom favored the president over Biden. Forty-four percent of white voters chose Biden. 

Forty-six percent of white women went for Biden while white men supported Trump by an 11-point margin. His strongest support was among white men without a college degree. Fifty percent of them favored Trump. Thirty-seven percent picked Biden. White evangelicals chose Trump 68-24%.  

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who has finished second in many recent primary polls, also bested Trump in a hypothetical matchup, but by a more modest 46-41% margin. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont beat Trump 49-41% and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg tied him at 41%. The poll found former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is not a candidate, with a two-point edge over Trump, 43-41%. 

Biden was the strong favorite in the primary field among likely Democratic voters at 31%. Next was Warren at 21%, followed by Sanders at 19% and Buttigieg at 7%.

USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll: Biden’s lead over Warren narrows in a turbulent Democratic field

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The poll was conducted from Oct. 27-30 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%. 

Ninety-seven percent of those voters said it was important that the Democratic nominee be able to defeat Trump – 80% said it was “extremely important,” 14% said it was “very” important and 4% said it was “somewhat” important. On the other hand, 42% said it was “extremely” important that the candidate share their views on major issues, while 40% said it was “very” important. 

Sixty-nine percent of Democratic voters said they were satisfied with their primary options, while 28% said they wished they had other choices.

Former first lady Michelle Obama has been floated as a potential candidate despite her insistence that she would not run. The poll found that 50% of Democrats would “definitely” vote for her and another 39% would consider it. If Clinton were to get in the race, 27% said she had their vote but 30% said they would never vote for her. 

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg hinted last month that he might enter the race if Biden struggles. Six percent of Democratic voters said they would definitely support him, while 32% said they would consider it and another 32% said he would never win their vote. 

Biden did not appear to be negatively impacted by Trump’s accusations of impropriety surrounding his son, Hunter Biden, who held a seat on the board of a Ukrainian energy company at the same time his father was working to convince that country to tackle corruption.

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Officials in Ukraine and the U.S. did not find the Bidens were guilty of any wrongdoing.

Nearly 60% of voters said it was not appropriate for the children of political leaders to have business dealings in other countries. 

But only 11% of Democratic voters said they were less likely to vote for Biden because of the allegations, while 65% said it made no difference and 21% said Trump’s attacks had made them more likely to vote for Biden. 

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Trump is currently facing an impeachment inquiry for allegedly using military aid as leverage to pressure Ukraine into investigating the Bidens and potential 2016 election interference from that country.

Forty-nine percent of registered voters said Trump should be impeached and removed from office and 45% said he should not. Despite several witnesses who appeared to corroborate the allegations against Trump, that actually represented a two-point drop from the previous Fox News poll in early October. 

When asked if there was a chance that new evidence could sway their opinion on impeachment, 57% of those who opposed it said there was nothing that could get them to change their minds. Thirty-four percent said new evidence could make them support impeachment. 

Sixty percent of voters said they thought Trump had asked Ukraine to investigate his political rivals and 52% believed he held up military aid to add pressure for Ukraine to do it and 46% said the affair had worsened their opinion of Trump. 

Forty-three percent said it was better to leave Trump’s fate up to the voters in 2020 even if the House decides it found enough evidence to impeach while 42% thought lawmakers should remove him. 

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