Commentary: US COVID-19 deaths are still high, but let’s learn from forecasters’ mistakes

In a recent NFL game, the Indianapolis Colts led the Minnesota Vikings 33-0 at halftime. At that point, Las Vegas was offering odds better than 100-1 the Colts would win, but the Vikings staged a furious second-half rally and won on a field goal in overtime. It was one of the biggest comebacks in NFL history and proved once again that it is not always possible to predict the outcome of an event before it ends. The same is true of the COVID-19 pandemic as it enters its fourth year. In May 2020, Business Insider CEO Henry Blodget and journalist David Plotz wrote: “Back in January, the United Sta…

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