A technical recession: How bad will it be?

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City AM

By Michiel Willems It is no surprise that US GDP growth is declining given the slowdown in consumer spending and domestic production recently. However, markets seem fraught with headline risk with the term ‘technical recession’ floating around. Analysts have pointed out the looming risk of a recession given the central bank’s aggressive tightening cycle while Fed chair Powell himself has acknowledged that avoiding an economic contraction is becoming less likely. One of his preferred indicators, the spread between the 18-month and 3-month benchmark on the Treasury curve, has fallen by 95bps ove…

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